How can we get the London ULEZ back on track?

Updated – The Mayor of London is a passionate campaigner against air pollution and yet his clean air strategy appears increasingly ineffective and open to cynicism and frankly..ridicule.

The congestion charge exemption for electric vehicles is the only incentive the London Mayor offers to encourage drivers to switch from polluting diesel vehicles to zero emission vehicles. If the EV exemption is removed then by the end of 2025 diesels and EVs would both pay the same congestion charge and also have the same exemption from the ULEZ.

If an EV pays the same as a 10 year old polluting diesel to drive in London then the policy charges people money while providing no encouragement at all to cut pollution.

He should either keep exempting EVs from congestion charge or stop exempting all diesels from the ULEZ pollution charge. Otherwise the Mayor is valuing the societal cost of air pollution on health and the climate impact of CO2 emissions at zero. For someone who cares as much about both issues he needs to deliver a policy that reflects that.

This is further underlined by the Mayor of London’s ULEZ scrappage scheme for vans – which is basically a very expensive way to take an old diesel van off the road and replace it with.. another diesel van using public funds. Electric vans are now available in all van segments and no taxpayer grants should be paying for anything other than a fully electric van.

About 2% of vans scrapped under the Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) scrappage scheme have been replaced by electric equivalents
[TFL figures from January 2023 and May 2024] Link to article on BBC News 26th June 2024

How could the exemption for diesel or other combustion vehicles be removed?

Currently the London ULEZ along with several other UK CAZ’s or Clean Air Zones exempt diesel vehicles approved under the EU Euro 6 emission standard introduced from September 2015. It is likely that any change to this exemption would need consultation or approval from central government. Even ULEZ exempt Euro 6 diesel vehicles remain highly polluting even when compared to petrol combustion cars for reasons we outline here. At the same time getting London clean air policy back in alignment with cutting air pollution and greenhouse gases from vehicles is politically challenging.

Option 1 – All diesel vehicles pay ULEZ

• Policy – the ULEZ exemption removed on the 25th December 2025 for all diesel cars and vans
• Controversy level – Very high
• Effectiveness of policy – very high
• Diesel owners affected – all diesels past or future
• While relatively few car drivers in London would be affected, diesel remains the fuel of choice for van drivers and many are on 3 year leases. This would make a sudden policy change affecting existing vans difficult.
• A variation on this is a staggered set of charges lower than the current ULEZ for all vehicles that are not fully electric.. lower rate for hybrids and petrol and higher for currently exempt diesel.

Option 2 – All diesels pay ULEZ but with an existing Euro 6 owner exemption

• Policy – All new or used diesel cars or vans pay ULEZ but existing owners of Euro 6 diesels keep their exemption for vehicles they already own when the charge is introduced. If a Euro 6 diesel owner buys or sells their vehicle it loses its exemption immediately.
• Controversy level – very low as no one’s existing diesel would be affected and anyone paying the charge would have chosen to buy a diesel knowing it was not exempt.
• Effectiveness – high but only over the very long term and only if used vehicle purchases also lose exemption as it soon as it transfers to a different owner. Essentially every new or used diesel car or van transaction would reduce the number of exempt vehicles every day of every year.
• Existing owners affected – none so completely removes the “I bought a diesel in good faith” argument.

Option 3 – The diesel sunset

• Policy – Each year the start date for the start date for exemption would move forward by 2 years
  eg Current exemption from Sept 2015
  Under diesel Sunset
  In year 1 this becomes 2017
  In year 2 this becomes 2019
  By year 5 only diesels sold since 2025 would be exempt*
• Controversy level – medium as different owners are affected each year
• Effectiveness – High but slower than option 1
• Diesel owners affected – a small proportion each year
• Diesel vehicles get more polluting as they get older and the diesel sunset would remove the ULEZ exemptions from the oldest vehicles first. Diesel car sales fell sharply since 2020 so the sunset would leave relatively few cars exempt.

Option 4 – Diesel van ULEZ charge and grant combination

• Policy – All diesel vans lose exemption but van owners can recover 90% of any ULEZ payments over a 12 month period if they use it to buy or lease an electric van and sell or scrap the diesel. Only available on a single vehicle once.
• Controversy level medium
• Effectiveness high – diesel vans are highly polluting
• Diesel owners affected – Applies to all vans and pickup trucks but not cars
• Further background – this would replace much of the current dysfunctional grant program which pays owners to scrap one diesel van in order to put another diesel van back on the road.

Option 6 – diesel sunset and “all diesels pay ULEZ with existing owner exemption” combined

• Policy – after the final purchase date no new or used diesel purchased would have an exemption while at the same time each year another 2 registration years of the oldest most polluting diesels lose their exemption
• Controversy level – still medium
• Diesel owners affected – considering all are eventually affected controversy level could be surprisingly low for achieving a diesel free city.

Conclusion

The London ULEZ made a good start at cutting air pollution and has expanded to a vast area. Its weak point, the exemption of many extremely polluting vehicles is becoming a critical issue. Action is now needed if any further progress is sought. Option 6 would be our preferred option in terms of high effectiveness and with medium controversy but even option 2 (all diesels pay ULEZ but existing owners exempt) will deliver in the end and just as importantly restores a clear direction to clean air policy in London.